Fun With Numbers: Hybrid Car Edition
Posted on 05. Aug, 2008 by Cameron in Projects
This post was written by Cameron!
I’d like to introduce a new series here at Whimfield: Fun With Numbers. Often during my research looking for new ways of reducing our cost of living, I crunch numbers. I often find it fun to come up with different statistical scenarios, crunch the numbers, and see how things pan out–the results are often very surprising.
Hybrid cars have been around for a few years now and are gaining in popularity. Governments here in Canada are starting to see the benefits of Hybrids and are encouraging citizens to buy new Hybrids and “green” vehicles by providing cash incentives and rebates. Sounds good right?
Well, it does sound good yes, more people driving Hybrids should mean less gas consumed, less oil demand, less pollution. But, I often wonder about what sort of cost there is to this “new is better” type of attitude–after all, there is a cost to manufacture a new Hybrid, how much does that account for in terms of gasoline consumed?
Ok, lets have some fun. Lets see how much gasoline will be consumed over a 7 year period (assumed age at which owner sells new car to buy another, the new car ownership period–see below) by looking at our old reliable 1982 Toyota Landcruiser, and three 2008 Hybrid vehicles.
General Assumptions
Average miles put on a car per year: 10000 (16000 km)
Median age of all vehicles on the road: 9 years
Median age at which a new car buyer sells to buy another new car (new car ownership period):  Couldn’t find data on this one. It has to be less than 9 years as that figure includes all used cars with N previous owners, lets assume 7 years.
Energy in a gallon of gasoline:Â 115,000 BTU
Estimated energy required to produce a brand new hybrid vehicle (as modelled with GREET):Â 38,650 BTU per lb of curb weight
Calculations
- Curb weight: 4200 lbs
- Fuel economy: 28 mpg mixed (as measured by myself)
- Gallons of fuel used per year:Â 10000 miles / 28 mpg = 357 gallons
- Fuel consumed if driven for another 7 years: 2499 gallons (9460 litres)
- Curb weight: 2981 lbs
- Fuel economy: 48 mpg city/45 mpg highway “estimated”–lets be optimists and say 47 mpg
- Gallons of fuel used per year:Â 10000 miles / 47 mpg = 213 gallons
- Energy used to produce this hybrid car: 2981 lbs * 38,650 BTU = 115 million BTU = 1000 gallons of gasoline (4.5 years of driving!)
- Fuel consumed for 7 year new car ownership period: 2491 gallons (9429 litres)
- Curb weight: 4500 lbs
- Fuel economy: 27 mpg city / 26 mpg highway “estimated”–lets take 27 mpg
- Gallons of fuel used per year: 10000 miles / 27 mpg =Â 370 gallons
- Energy used to produce this hybrid car: 4500 lbs * 38,650 BTU = 174 million BTU = 1513 gallons of gasoline (4 years of driving!)
- Fuel consumed for 7 year new car ownership period: 4103 gallons (15532 litres)
- Curb weight:Â 5617 lbs
- Fuel economy: 20 mpg city/20 mpg highway
- Gallons of fuel used per year: 10000 miles / 20 mpg =Â 500 gallons
- Energy used to produce this hybrid car: 5617 lbs * 38,650 BTU = 217 million BTU = 1887 gallons of gasoline (3.5 years of driving!)
- Fuel consumed for 7 year new car ownership period: 5387 gallons (20392 litres)
Conclusion
Hmm, that old 1982 Landcruiser is looking pretty good. The Landcruiser’s fuel consumption is statistically equal to that of a new Prius over its 7 year new car ownership period.
But if compared to vehicles of equal size, our Landcruiser would use 40% less fuel than the 2008 Highlander and 54% less fuel than the 2008 Tahoe. Wow.
Now, obviously I have made a lot of assumptions here, but I believe the general outcome to be true–old cars can be considered “green”. I wonder if I can take this data to the government and request a “green” vehicle rebate? I can picture it now, “What? a 4200lb 1982 S.U.V. ? Are you kidding me?”.
The reality is that Toyota has been making efficient diesels capable of 30-45mpg since the early 80ties and there are plenty still around. Thanks for playing!






Quincy
Aug 5th, 2008
Obvious statistical omission in your theory– You did not include the energy used to produce that Land Cruiser. Just because it’s been around since 1982 does not mean it magically appeared on the surface of the earth without manufacturing costs or expenditure in energy.
You also did not take into account the maintenance needs of that Land Cruiser:
- Front-and-rear diff lube every 20,000 miles (which the Prius does not need)
- Transmission fluid change every 20,000 miles (Prius needs a tranny fluid change only every 60,000 miles).
- brake pad changes every 20,000 miles and rotor change at 40,000 mile (Prius does not need brake pad change until 100,000 miles due to use of regenerative braking)
- Oil change for the Land Cruiser every 3,000 miles (Prius requires an oil change once every 5,000 miles because its engine is not running all the time the car is in motion).
- Timing belt, alternator and starter replacement in the Land Cruiser (the Prius does not have any of those wearable items).
- Higher cost of diesel fuel vs. gasoline.
If you figured in all those factors (which you did not), the Prius comes out WAY ahead.
Sorry, but your number crunching left some holes big enough to drive a Land Cruiser through. :-D
Cameron
Aug 5th, 2008
Thanks for your comments. My intention was to look only at fuel consumed as a comparison to driving an old car that already exists vs buying a new car that had to be manufactured to replace a used car. If we want to start debating cost, an old Landcruiser in the hands of someone that isn’t scared of a wrench will always come out ahead over 7 years as they can be had for a thousand or two–what’s a new Prius worth?
BTW, for your information, our Landcruiser is 26 years old and has no timing belt (gear driven), it has the original alternator and the original starter–do you think those Prius batteries will last forever?
Laura-Jane
Aug 5th, 2008
Love a good debate. Quincy, best last line ever! :)
I should weigh in on this one quickly. Obviously, if one is going to purchase a new car anyway, please go GREEN!!!! However, if your old car is working fine, it does beg discussion as to whether it should be retired because it is not green enough.
I don’t think Cameron’s intention is to suggest that Hybrid vehicles are bad; I believe his intention is the flip side: that older vehicles are not so bad. Cam, am I right?
Fun with numbers!!
Dear readers, thoughts??
Andrea >> Become a consultant
Aug 5th, 2008
We recently went through this exercise. We have a 2000 Honda Civic, one of the more efficient cars of its time. We drive about 3000-5000 km a year and we have two kids, which means that the trunk gets full very quickly (stroller and so on). We looked at a variety of vehicles and discovered that we are better off driving our Civic and installing roof racks and a Yakima cargo box. For around $1k, we gave our car the capacity of a minivan and barely added to mileage! We can also rent a car or join the car co-op when necessary.
We learned that your footprint is smaller if you keep driving an older Civic. No new car needs to be developed — people will point out that it took energy to produce the 2000 Civic, but the fact is that, if there is no need to buy a new car, you would be stealing the Earth’s resources for no reason to buy a hybrid. Moreover, after 10 years, you will have to replace the battery in a hybrid.
Note that (unless I missed them) you haven’t pointed out air pollution and so on from the Land Cruiser. Plus the points noted by the poster above.
That being said, if you are in the position of *needing* to buy a *new* car, a hybrid makes sense. But if you could just upgrade to another used car, your footprint may be smaller.
Do you need an SUV? Could you upgrade to a 200* Honda Civic and put a big cargo box on top and another box on the hitch? Flip down the passenger side seats and carry baseboards? Rent a van when you need more space than that? Get a tent for camping? Look at staying in motels? (My parents worked this out several years ago and discovered they were better off to stay in motels than to buy a Westfalia or what-have-you.)
Andrea
Urban Earth Child
Martin
Aug 5th, 2008
Nice article, Cam. I tend to agree with keeping an older vehicle on the road when it’s in reasonable working order. It’s tough to narrow it down to one statistic though. There’s all sorts of other issues to consider in this kind of decision.
- Cost of financing new vehicle, or lost investment return if buying outright.
- I’d bet that Prius won’t pull the trailer you hauled across Canada. It certainly won’t tackle the logging roads here in BC.
- Environmental impact of nickel mining for hybrid batteries. Big debates over this.
- Cost of gas/diesel is high now, but some are claiming it will drop to as low as $50/barrel in a few years. *No one* can predict this reliably. Already down 20% in the last couple of weeks.
- Safety features of new vehicles (stability/traction control, ABS, airbags). Of course your Landcrusier would probably crunch a Prius like a tin can.
- Whether or not a person is mechanically inclined, owns the tools, has the space and time to work on a vehicle.. or has to pay a mechanic.
- Poor overall quality and poor future resale value of many domestic models.
- Hybrids are too new to predict future resale value reliably.
- Dealers are charging a premium above MSRP for hybrids due to current demand.
- Alternative options, like getting a motorcycle as a second vehicle.
Martin
Cameron
Aug 5th, 2008
Thanks for the comments everyone. Great points.
Martin: Trailer was 2200lbs loaded–I wouldn’t want to try that in a 2900lb Prius, with the laws of physics being how they are and all. lol.
For your amusement, some other points I did not touch on in order to keep this article sane: exhaust pollution, cost of ownership, driving conditions, toxicity of paint used, cost of constructing replacement parts, shipping vehicles to dealers, number of rubber trees cut down to produce a set of replacement tires, average amount of fuel spilled into the earth during fill-up, medical bill incurred by driver when vehicle collides with a semi, etc etc. Yes there will always be points I did not touch on.
Basically, as Laura-Jane mentioned, I just wanted to show that old vehicles are still useful and can be “green”. Around PEI there are farmers still using tractors from the 1940s and 50s, it’s amazing how long something will last if it is taken care of and not simply discarded because it is old.
Andrea
Aug 6th, 2008
Great post, and timely.
If my man and I end up buying a few acres out east, he thinks we won’t need a vehicle. While our current lifestyle here in Victoria suits being car-free, I disagree with my dear, headstrong, partner’s opinion that we can continue along this vein. Perhaps you can weigh in on the debate.
Do you think it’s possible to build a straw bale/cob house, a workshop, a hot-yoga yurt, a pollytunnel, an apiary, and start a market garden without owning a vehicle of some description?
Hmmm….
Cameron
Aug 6th, 2008
Hi Andrea–from what I’ve read you’re looking at Cape Breton? Very cool! I suppose if you were living in Sidney you could get away with it, but if you’re going rural a car is a definite must. Did I say a car? forget it, you’ll need a truck!
The ultimate utilitarian vehicle ever produced is the 1980s Diesel 2wd Toyota pickup truck. These trucks are stupidly simple, retardedly cheap, incredibly reliable, and are found in the harshest areas of the world. A few years back I owned a 1984 Toyota Pickup with a 2.4L diesel with 400,000km on it. I drove the truck 85km per day for several years commuting to University. I often achieved mileage of 43mpg with this truck and it cost me $1800 to buy. Before buying it I had no mechanical experience yet I found myself able to fix things that broke.
Our Landcruiser is a lot bigger than the little Toyota pickup, but is also dead simple. The Landcruiser is a little more expensive to operate though due to greater mechanical complexity as a result of having 4wd.
Keep us updated!
Oh yeah, check this video out: http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=Lrk6vsb77xk
Laura-Jane
Aug 6th, 2008
Totally agree with Cameron.
When we lived in Victoria I commuted to work via bus and bicycle (and that was from downtown to Langford!), and I loved not being too reliant on a vehicle… Not sure what the transit system is like in NS, but on PEI it is literally NON-EXISTENT. There are a few buses that circle around the capital city, but there are NO BUSES anywhere else. None. Zero.
Indeed, when one is working on a house, one needs to buy SUPPLIES!! We built a wooden bed/rack in the back of our Landcruiser, and we just insured our little utility trailer, too. Think 12 foot 2×4s! Think huge sheets of plywood! Think renting scaffolding! Think blizzards in -20 weather! Etc, etc.
I would say that once you’ve got everything built, then you could definitely re-evaluate though. :)
Andrea
Aug 14th, 2008
Thanks for the advice Cameron and Laura-Jane!
Our property plans are on hold until next spring as we re-evaluate our needs and where we really want to be. We had an offer in on an acreage in Cape Breton but we would’ve had to pay more than it was worth so come March we’re going to explore a couple of other possibilities. PEI is one of them – we had no idea it was even less expensive on the island… cheap enough that we could afford to run a sturdy truck ; )
Steven Fisher
Aug 29th, 2008
I know I’m late to this post, but I just saw this:
“Trailer was 2200lbs loaded–I wouldn’t want to try that in a 2900lb Prius, with the laws of physics being how they are and all.”
Oh, but how I’d love to see someone try that!
Jillian C
Aug 31st, 2008
Yay! I love this post. I’m a ZipCar and public transit user. Hearing about ways to reduce our lovely little footprints is always refreshing (and useful, to boot!)
Keep it up!
JC
$weet T
Oct 22nd, 2008
I would beg to differ with comment #1, I am a mechanic, and I have noticed that brake pads on hybrids with regenerative braking wear out around 30-40k miles and it would be unlikely that they would last 60k unless the car was driven very lightly. I don’t know about the 2nd-gen Prius specifically though, but the older Prius’ pads wear fairly normally, as do the Civic hybrids’
Sal
Oct 11th, 2009
I love my little Toyota Echo (that is not made anymore) and keep up the maintenance on it because I will not buy a new car q 3 years. My hubbie Toyota Tacoma is an amazing little truck.
These have both been tested with those travelling car emission testers and we score at the top.
Sell? Buy new? I think not.
Tim Randall
Mar 29th, 2010
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Dec 20th, 2010
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